By 2025, 1.4 billion 5G connections will see fixed wireless technology becoming a fibre competitor, according to Juniper Research.
The firm is predicting that from 1 million 5G connections in 2019, which is now being billed as “the anticipated first year of commercial launch”, will grow to 1.4 billion connections in 2025, an “average annual growth of 232%".
Juniper’s new research, dubbed “5G Market Strategies: Consumer & Enterprise Opportunities & Forecasts 2017-2025” is on sale to relevant parties at relevant prices, and notes that for 5G to be successful, “5G fixed wireless broadband would need to meet expectations in real-world scenarios to compete with fibre broadband".
Naturally, Juniper also has a free whitepaper to tempt you into purchasing its full report, entitled: “5G: How Operators Can Maximise ROI.”
{loadposition alex08}The report’s key findings include the info that the top three 5G countries with the highest number of 5G connections by 2025 will be China, the US and Japan, accounting for 55% of all 5G connections by 2025.
Additionally, Juniper found that “the US alone will account for over 30% of global 5G IoT connections by 2025, with the highest number of 5G connections for fixed wireless broadband and automotive services".
However, not all is rosy in the land of 5G, with Juniper predicting that “5G IoT connection revenues will disappoint".
In terms of commercial IOT revenues, Juniper says it has forecast that “the ARPC (average revenue per connection) would be disappointing, including smart cities and digital health".
Why? Because of “low data requirements and nominal duty-cycles".
Juniper’s research urges operators to “develop new business models to minimise network operating costs, including software-based solutions to manage the diverse requirements of individual 5G IoT connections".
Further, the company advises that “maximising connectivity revenues through 5G fixed wireless broadband would prove crucial to offset this disappointment, with ARPC forecast to remain above $50 until 2025".
Research author Sam Barker said: “Operators and vendors must test their networks in a real-world environment at scale, ensuring speeds can compete with fibre services.
“Networks that can deliver the highest speeds and greatest reliability will command the highest ARPCs, hastening an operator's return on 5G investment”.
One wonders if and when non-fixed 5G wireless connections will also become a fibre competitor, but presumably any such information is in Juniper’s report.
Here’s Juniper’s 5G infographic on the above topic.