Worldwide production of self-driving cars is forecast to reach 14.5 million in the next 10 years, up significantly from only a few thousands in 2020, according to the latest report from Juniper Research, which also forecasts that more than 22 million of the vehicles will be in use by consumers in 2025.
The new research — Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS: Adoption, Regulation & Business Models 2016-2025 — found that the market adoption of AV (Autonomous Vehicle) technology is set to accelerate over the next few years, driven by:
• Increasingly stringent vehicle safety specifications
• Environmental pressures
• Rapid technological developments
{loadposition peter}The research also found that driverless vehicles will have a disruptive impact on transportation around the world and will ultimately lead to millions of professional drivers being made redundant.
Juniper predicts that city-based taxi services will be one of the key early adopters of driverless vehicles.
“The introduction of driverless cars will result in fundamental changes to the automotive world and society in general; and it is clear that the boundaries between private vehicle ownership, car sharing and rental fleets will increasingly become blurred,” says research author Gareth Owen.
But, while Juniper predicts big growth in AV vehicle numbers globally, the research firm warns that following the first-ever fatality in an AV vehicle, the recent Tesla S accident in Florida, “the AV industry must convince the public that their vehicles are completely safe”.
Despite the concerns about safety, the research found that a number of major OEMs including BMW, Toyota and GM are accelerating their AV development and testing programmes and now have firm plans to launch production vehicles.
As a result, Juniper forecasts that driverless vehicles will start to become widespread in the years between 2020 and 2025, although they will initially be confined to city centres or key routes “due to the need for extensive V2X (Vehicle-To-Everything) infrastructure”.
To access full detail of Juniper’s research, and its complimentary whitepaper – ‘On Track with Self-Driving Vehicles 2.0’ – click here.