With over 100 Hype Cycles already published by Gartner this year, one of its most famous is the “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2017”, targets AI everywhere, transparently immersive experiences and digital platforms as "megatrends."
Gartner’s Hype Cycles. This hype is the hope for technologies to go past the innovation trigger, strive the peak of inflated expectations, solider on through the trough of disillusionment, climb the slope of enlightenment and successfully make it onto the plateau of productivity - without earning the circled red cross of becoming obsolete before the plateau.
Now comes one of the most anticipated - the “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2017” which Gartner says reveals “reveal three distinct megatrends that will enable businesses to survive and thrive in the digital economy over the next five to 10 years.”
These are:
- Artificial intelligence (AI) everywhere
- Transparently immersive experiences, and
- Digital platforms
Gartner says are the trends that “will provide unrivalled intelligence, create profoundly new experiences and offer platforms that allow organisations to connect with new business ecosystems.”
We should also hope they don’t provide unrivalled intelligence to rival humans into extinction, but perhaps I’ve watched too many dystopian science fiction movies.
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Back to reality, we are reminded by Gartner that its Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle is the company’s longest-running annual Gartner Hype Cycle, providing a “cross-industry perspective on the technologies and trends that business strategists, chief innovation officers, R&D leaders, entrepreneurs, global market developers and emerging-technology teams should consider in developing emerging-technology portfolios.”
So, why is this particular Hype Cycle unique amongst “most” of Gartner’s Hyped Cycles?
We’re told it is unique among most “because it garners insights from more than 2,000 technologies into a succinct set of compelling emerging technologies and trends,” and that this particular cycle “specifically focuses on the set of technologies that is showing promise in delivering a high degree of competitive advantage over the next five to 10 years (see the embedded image below).”
Mike J. Walker, research director at Gartner said: “Enterprise architects who are focused on technology innovation must evaluate these high-level trends and the featured technologies, as well as the potential impact on their businesses.
"In addition to the potential impact on businesses, these trends provide a significant opportunity for enterprise architecture leaders to help senior business and IT leaders respond to the digital business opportunities and threats by creating signature-ready actionable and diagnostic deliverables that guide investment decisions."
So, here is the Hype Cycle we’ve all been waiting for!
Note: PaaS = platform as a service; UAVs = unmanned aerial vehicles
Source: Gartner (July 2017)
And what are some additional details behind the big three mega trends?
AI Everywhere
“Artificial intelligence technologies will be the most disruptive class of technologies over the next 10 years due to radical computational power, near-endless amounts of data, and unprecedented advances in deep neural networks; these will enable organisations with AI technologies to harness data in order to adapt to new situations and solve problems that no one has ever encountered previously.
“Enterprises that are seeking leverage in this theme should consider the following technologies: Deep Learning, Deep Reinforcement Learning, Artificial General Intelligence, Autonomous Vehicles, Cognitive Computing, Commercial UAVs (Drones), Conversational User Interfaces, Enterprise Taxonomy and Ontology Management, Machine Learning, Smart Dust, Smart Robots and Smart Workspace.”
Transparently Immersive Experiences
“Technology will continue to become more human-centric to the point where it will introduce transparency between people, businesses and things. This relationship will become much more entwined as the evolution of technology becomes more adaptive, contextual and fluid within the workplace, at home, and in interacting with businesses and other people.
“Critical technologies to be considered include: 4D Printing, Augmented Reality (AR), Computer-Brain Interface, Connected Home, Human Augmentation, Nanotube Electronics, Virtual Reality (VR) and Volumetric Displays.”
Digital Platforms
“Emerging technologies require revolutionising the enabling foundations that provide the volume of data needed, advanced compute power, and ubiquity-enabling ecosystems. The shift from compartmentalised technical infrastructure to ecosystem-enabling platforms is laying the foundations for entirely new business models that are forming the bridge between humans and technology.
“Key platform-enabling technologies to track include: 5G, Digital Twin, Edge Computing, Blockchain, IoT Platform, Neuromorphic Hardware, Quantum Computing, Serverless PaaS and Software-Defined Security.”
Walker added: “When we view these themes together, we can see how the human-centric enabling technologies within transparently immersive experiences — such as smart workspace, connected home, augmented reality, virtual reality and the growing brain-computer interface — are becoming the edge technologies that are pulling the other trends along the Hype Cycle.”
Gartner notes that “AI Everywhere" emerging technologies are “moving rapidly through the Hype Cycle.”
This is evidenced by “technologies such as deep learning, autonomous learning and cognitive computing are just crossing the peak, which shows that they are key enablers of technologies that create transparent and immersive experiences.”
Finally, Gartner says that “digital platforms are rapidly moving up the Hype Cycle, illustrating the new IT realities that are possible by providing the underlining platforms that will fuel the future.
“Technologies such as Quantum Computing (climbing the Innovation Trigger) and Blockchain (having passed the peak) are poised to create the most transformative and dramatic impacts in the next five to 10 years.”
Walker concludes: “These megatrends illustrate that the more organisations are able to make technology an integral part of employees', partners' and customers' experiences, the more they will be able to connect their ecosystems to platforms in new and dynamic ways.”
As per usual, Gartner’s clients can read more in the full report, which is available to relevant parties at relevant prices, with this research part of the Gartner’s Trend Insight Report “2017 Hype Cycles Highlight Enterprise and Ecosystem Digital Disruptions.”
That report features “over 1,800 profiles of technologies, services and disciplines spanning over 100 Hype Cycles focused on a diversity of regions, industries and roles, this Trend Insight Report is designed to help CIOs and IT leaders respond to the opportunities and threats affecting their businesses, take the lead in technology-enabled business innovations and help their organisations define an effective digital business strategy.”
Naturally, Gartner will have plenty more during its regular Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2017 events around the world, with Australia’s to run from October 30 to November 2 on the Gold Coast.