Strategy Analytics look at the expected evolution of the 5G standard and 690M connections by 2025, noting much work has yet to be done to get there.
Research gurus Strategy Analytics have been analysing the oft-analysed and reported on world of 5G.
The standard is not yet complete despite every telco equipment maker and telco participating in a trial of 5G technologies while upgrading their networks to ever faster iterations of 4G as quickly as they can.
While no firm 5G standard yet exists, it is expected to be in operation by 2020, which would presumably require not just mobile hotspot modems or dongles, but also 5G-equipped smartphones.
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Strategy Analytics expects this will be so too, and makes the other obvious observation that initial prices for such handsets will be high, which is always the case with a smoking hot, super-fast new technology. Next they’ll be telling us that battery life on these very first 5G devices will be shorter than on 3G and 4G devices, too.
I guess we’ll hear more about that in mid-2019 when all the rumours of the 5G equipped iPhone 8s (after the 7, 7s and 8) in 2020 start arriving, alongside 5G equipped Samsungs and everyone else.
The researchers have released two reports, the first entitled “5G Progress Review – Fragmentation Likely but Diversification Inevitable”, which "concludes significant work is needed to marry the appeal of a unified early 5G standard with the longer term need to support diverse market requirements".
Indeed, explain the analysts, "leading operators such as NTT DoCoMo, SK Telecom, Verizon, AT&T and more cautious European operators are plotting very different 5G paths".
The second report is entitled “Global 5G Handset Sales Forecast by Region”, which predicts 5G commercial handset sales will begin in 2020 and exceed 300 million by 2025.
Naturally, the reports are on sale to relevant parties at relevant prices.
Guang Yang, senior analyst at Strategy Analytics, said: “5G network plans have developed well in 2016, driving an ecosystem which will put 7% of mobile connections on 5G networks by 2025. China’s 2020 5G launch plans brings it closer to early adopters in the US, South Korea and Japan, who are speeding up progress to meet the broadband access demands from the Olympic Games and competition of non-traditional players. In contrast, European operators are currently paying more attention to opportunities in IoT.”
Ken Hyers, director at Strategy Analytics, added: “While the first commercial 5G handsets will appear in small numbers in 2020 in South Korea and Japan, from 2021 more countries including the US, UK, Sweden, UAE and China will see their own launches. By 2022, tens of millions of 5G handsets will be sold, and as a proportion of total handset sales will reach low single digit percentages.”
Ville-Petteri Ukonaho said: “While the first trial 5G handsets in 2018 are expected to have teething problems, including short battery life, no 4G handover or unstable connectivity, by 2020 these issues will be largely resolved, though the first commercial 5G handsets will likely come with very high price tags.”
